Common Census

As you likely have read, the Trump administration is planning to undercount the U.S. census in 2020 by asking a question on citizenship. The approximately 12 million or so people in the U.S. who are here without legal authority will tend to avoid answering the census. Likely, many people with temporary legal status will also be deterred.

American businesses oppose the administration. David Kenny, CEO of Nielsen, recently wrote: “A citizenship question will pollute a data set that is foundational for businesses all over the country.” He explains:

“This truth set is more critical now than it has ever been before, as business reflects a changing America. In 2044, white Americans will be a minority. We know that because prior decennial census data has told us so. At that time, Hispanics will constitute 25 percent of the population; African-Americans, 12.7 percent; Asians, 7.9 percent; and multiracial people, 3.7 percent. American businesses are already adapting to this evolving customer base, but they require the best possible data to do so.”

Now let’s have some historical perspective. 

For that we visit England in the mid-1500s! Lawrence Stone, in his 1949 research article, “Elizabethan Overseas Trade,” notes that England’s economy languished for 200 years— until the Crown started to collect as much data as possible about its population, its commerce, its churches, ports, ships, roads, and so forth.

In relevant part, Stone concluded:

During the reign of Elizabeth, in the face of recurring economic crises, and of the far more  pressing threats of foreign attack and popular discontent, the government steadily proceeded to extend its control over almost all sectors of the national economy. Perpetually, Burghley called upon his subordinates for statistics and yet more statistics to serve as a basis for policy.

… Aware of the economic and military necessity of obtaining vital statistics, Burghley produced a plan for a General Registry Office to which 'there should be yearly delivered a summary ... whereby it should appear how many christenings, weddings and burials were every year  within England and Wales, and every county particularly by itself, and  how many men-children and women-children were born in all of them, severally set down by themselves.

How did England benefit from an accurate census? 

Many ways—but one very telling example is that the island nation had too few ships and seamen to support its population.

The data allowed the English government to enact policies to build up its maritime fleet. Until that time, they relied heavily on ships flagged under different nations.

The census plan for 2020 is motivated by xenophobia. It is also medieval in its blind faith in ignorance as a tool for economic planning. Queen Elizabeth would shake her head at America’s stupidity in knowingly undercounting its population.