Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Here Is Kaepernick’s Grievance: Why It’s Probably a Loser

There are real problems with the grievance.
For one, it reads like a political manifesto. I am personally sympathetic to Kaepernick’s protest and his method. But winning a grievance will take evidence of collusion, not political persuasion.
It’s telling to note what is missing from his grievance.
It makes no specific mention of two or more teams that have colluded.
It makes no mention of quarterback vacancies in the period from September 22, 2017 through its October 12th filing date (before Aaron Rodgers was injured).
The September 22nd date is important because his primary theory is that President Trump’s racially provocative message— clearly aimed at Kaepernick— starts the clock on his grievance.
It makes no mention that he opted out of his contract at San Francisco on March 3, 2017, as was his right.
In 2016, Kaepernick restructured his deal with the 49ers. He gave up $14.5 million in injury guarantees for the ability to opt out of his deal at the end of the year. 
The point is that he terminated his employment with the 49’ers, not the other way around. And the next point is that he walked from a $16.5 million salary (but no money guaranteed).
Do I think that teams want to avoid him for political reasons? Certainly.
But it’s also important to realize that other players are vocal about racial injustice and taking a knee during the anthem. Michael Bennett, defensive lineman for Seattle, was vocal about being racially profiled by police officers in Las Vegas on August 27th, and had a gun pointed at his head—for no valid reason. Bennett remains employed and his team management supports his viewpoint.
The NFL will tell its story about Kaepernick outside of public view. Part of their proof will likely be the money that Kaepernick was seeking when he opted out of a very good contract at San Francisco.
Another part of the story from the NFL side? Kaepernick ranked 23rd among QBs in 2016 among 30 who had season-long totals. In other words, his performance was in the bottom quartile-- not statistics that will get a QB a multi-year contract north of $16.5 million per year.

At least part of the story behind Kaepernick’s unemployment is that he over-estimated his market value (he seems to believe he is worth substantially more than $16.5 million a year). If an arbitrator believes that’s part of the story, it will add to Kaepernick’s proof problems.





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