Friday, December 27, 2019

2019 Was Not a Great Year for the U.S. Economy

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Photo Credit: Water & Waste Digest, March 25, 2019, Huntington, WV
Adriana Cohen is an up-and-coming contributor to Fox News. She writes in the Boston Herald today, “Trump Deserves Credit for Strong Economy – ‘Expert’ Predictions of Disaster Were All Wrong.” 
She cites Apple’s 80% increase in value; wage growth of 3.1%; and record low unemployment.

Here is a report on West Virginia from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Virginia. I was in Huntington in July 2019 for a workday. It was the same Huntington I have visited over the past 15-20 years.

WEST VIRGINIA December Summary

Reports on West Virginia’s economy varied in recent weeks as payroll employment increased but the unemployment rate rose as well. Meanwhile, housing market reports were mixed. 

Labor Markets: Total payroll employment in West Virginia rose by 500 jobs (0.1 percent), on net, in October. The largest increases were in professional and business services (700 jobs) and trade, transportation, and utilities (400 jobs). Some other industries saw smaller gains, of about 100 jobs, and others held steady. Employment fell over the month in construction (600 jobs), information (100 jobs), and financial activities (200 jobs). 

Since October 2018, West Virginia employers added 3,200 jobs (0.4 percent growth), on net. The most jobs were added in education and health services (1,700 jobs), while leisure and hospitality saw the largest percentage increase of 1.9 percent. 

On a year-over-year basis professional and business services and “other” services each decreased employment by a net 1,000 jobs, and smaller decreases were also reported in information and mining and logging.

Household Conditions: The unemployment rate in West Virginia rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.8 percent in October, 0.3 percentage point below its October 2018 reading. In the third quarter of 2019, the share of mortgages in West Virginia with payments 90 or more days past due fell to 1.1 percent. 

Delinquency rates for fixed and adjustable rate conventional loans also decreased in the second quarter to rates of 0.9 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. In the second quarter of 2019, real personal income in West Virginia rose 0.4 percent and was up 2.6 percent since the second quarter of 2018.

Housing Markets: West Virginia issued 242 new residential permits in October, down slightly from 256 permits in September but up slightly from the 221 permits issued last October. Compared to September, the Charleston and Parkersburg MSAs saw an increase in permitting activity, but Huntington and Morgantown saw a decrease. Housing starts in West Virginia totaled 2,500 at an annual rate in October, down from 3,000 starts in September but up slightly from 2,400 starts in October 2018. 

According to CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values in the state appreciated 1.0 percent in September and increased 3.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. 

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