Census Undercount Looms: Can Democrats Fix It?

The U.S. census form has not asked a citizenship question since 1950— the last time that immigration laws imposed restrictions based on race. 

In 2020, the Trump administration plans to go back to the 1950 census question. 

This will likely undercount all aliens, especially those who came to the U.S. unlawfully. Some of them will fear identification and deportation.

This past week, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg hinted that a 5-4 decision will soon be issued that permits the undercount. This will create more representation in the House of Representatives for Republicans.

Can Democrats fix this? Maybe.

Consider the dispute between Utah and North Carolina over the 2000 census. The Census Bureau has always had a problem getting a complete count of everyone in the U.S. In instances where the Census Bureau was unsure of the number of residents at an address after a field visit, the Bureau inferred its population characteristics from its nearest similar neighbor. This is called “hot-deck imputation.”

The Census Bureau used this process in 2000 (and continues to do so). As a result, Utah had a downward adjusted count and North Carolina had a gain. In effect, North Carolina took one congressional seat from Utah (both are traditionally GOP states).

Utah sued in Utah v. Evans, 536 U.S. 452 (2002). The Supreme Court upheld the use of that statistical technique. The Court said the inferential technique was a better version of the “actual enumeration” required by the Constitution.

So, an adjustment is still possible but this assumes a change in presidential administrations in 2021 and a Supreme Court that is willing to stand by its precedent in Utah v. Evans. This outcome seems uncertain, to say the least.