Today’s New York Times
has a distressing feature story, “California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear
Losing Field Workers.” Here’s the gist of the story from California’s Central
Valley— the nation’s growing place for fruit and
vegetable crops— summarized in a choice quote from a grower: “If you only
have legal labor, certain parts of this industry and this region will not exist,”
said Harold McClarty, a fourth-generation farmer in Kingsburg whose operation
grows, packs and ships peaches, plums and grapes throughout the country. “If
we sent all these people back, it would be a total disaster.”
The exodus of farm workers will proceed on different legal
fronts, possibly with a compounding effect on food availability and prices:
Deportation of Illegals: Yesterday, President
Trump successfully enlisted the support of the nation’s professional
association of sheriffs to aid in rounding up “illegals”—the first step toward
deportation.
From the NYT story: Jeff Marchini has a large business built
around leafy vegetables. He voted for Trump. Now, he has second thoughts. Marchini
said, “as a
businessman, Mr. Trump would know that farmers had invested millions of dollars
into produce that is growing right now, and that not being able to pick and
sell those crops would represent huge losses for the state economy. I’m
confident that he can grasp the magnitude and the anxiety of what’s happening
now.”
Restrictions on/Elimination of H-2A Workers: This is
the legal side of agricultural labor market. President Trump might expand the
program, but that’s not been his drift. Trump’s affinity is reflected here: “Dan Stein,
president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, said that limiting
the use of foreign labor would push more Americans into jobs that had primarily
been performed by immigrants.” So far, in Arizona, where a highly
restrictive immigration law was passed about nine years ago, American citizens
have not filled in for the lost immigrant labor. True, wages have gone up.... but production has gone down in labor-dependent agriculture, with growers working smaller fields
Pull Out of NAFTA: Retaliation by Mexico would
hurt growers in the Central Valley. Last year, California alone earned $21
billion from agricultural trade.
Summary Assessment: For now, consider the insights
of John Krist, CEO of Farm Bureau of Ventura County: “If Trump were to follow through on a pledge to deport every
person in the United States who is here illegally or without proper
documentation, setting aside the logistics and civil rights nightmares that
would be involved in deporting 11 million people, basically that would put
California and Ventura County agriculture out of business overnight,” Krist
said. “It varies and is hard to get solid figures (but) it’s no secret that
as much as half to three-quarters of the California agriculture labor force
lacks proper documentation. There’s not really any way to prepare for something
like that; you just hope it doesn’t happen.”
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