In some ways, this
chart is more ominous than a Category 5 hurricane.
The numbers on the
left are percentages for people in the labor force. Take all people ages 16-64
who can work. Then count the number of people who have a job, or who are
unemployed but looking for jobs. They are in the labor force. The rest of people are not working or trying to work.
Throughout President Trump’s term, the percentage has held
steady at 62%-63%. That was the same level for the last four years of President
Obama time in office. It's a problem that's bigger than a president.
The Great Recession of 2007-08 took out about 3% of our labor force participation.
That means we have millions of people who can work but are not engaged in the labor force.
The Great Recession of 2007-08 took out about 3% of our labor force participation.
That means we have millions of people who can work but are not engaged in the labor force.
What is surprising is that the robust economy today is
attracting so few new people to get off the sidelines and work.
Republicans believe that an overly generous welfare system is
part of the problem. Why work when you’re paid to be idle?
Democrats believe that lack of job training is part of the
problem. How are laid-off coal miners and steel mill workers supposed to adapt
to a changing economy?
An aging population
is part of the problem (but note, the statistic takes out retirees and
retirement-eligible people, so the problem is among 40-65 year olds). Do they have desirable skills? Is age discrimination chasing them out of the job market?
Are undocumented
aliens part of the problem? No. Their numbers declined in 2016-2018 (estimates range from about 1-2 million who have been deported or left voluntarily). This drop has not caused labor force
participation rates to rise.
This is a quiet
problem that has huge consequences for millions of broken lives— the explosion
of opioid addiction among people who have lost a connection to work being just
one compelling example.
As a nation, we must find a way to engage more people in work—or
we will pay for them to be idle in direct subsidies and indirect costs such as emergency room visits that shift costs to our health insurance premiums.
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